Trump’s Wild Card - Issue #494 November 14th, 2024

The Fool. Trump’s election signals a rollback of Biden’s AI regulations, sparking fresh debates over AI’s future in the U.S. His administration plans to dismantle the 2023 Executive Order on AI security, shifting to state-led policies and lighter federal oversight. While tech companies could benefit from reduced compliance costs, questions remain on ethical risks like bias and misinformation. For businesses, Trump’s approach might mean less red tape, but the lack of cohesive AI standards could challenge consistent innovation.

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The Hierophant. As Trump’s victory reverberates through financial services, industry insiders, including Laura Watkins and Benjamin Ensor, weigh in on the potential impacts. With discussions spanning Affirm’s entry into the UK, Barclays’ acquisition of Tesco Bank, Klar’s IPO ambitions, and NatWest and Mastercard’s new business card solutions, the industry looks ahead. Trump’s stance could mean fewer regulatory hurdles, potentially unlocking further expansion opportunities for fintechs domestically and abroad.

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The Wheel of Fortune. Bitcoin’s value surged post-election, propelled by Trump’s pro-crypto stance. His promises to “normalize” crypto, potentially firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler and creating a national bitcoin reserve, have fueled market optimism. While this approach legitimizes digital assets, it raises ideological contradictions in a traditionally decentralized sector. If Trump’s crypto vision takes hold, businesses in this space might see broader acceptance, though volatility could challenge stability.

The Emperor. Trump’s election brought an 8% surge in bank stocks, spurred by expected regulatory relief and potential tax cuts. The Republican Senate majority could clear a path for relaxed regulations, encouraging loan growth and more M&A activity. For banks, this means an optimistic outlook with room for increased earnings, yet the long-term effects of reduced oversight remain uncertain, especially as some regulatory shifts may take years to unfold.

The Magician. Trump’s appointment of Elon Musk to co-lead the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) signals a bold step toward restructuring federal agencies. DOGE, working closely with the White House but without legislative funding, aims to cut bureaucratic spending by up to $2 trillion. For businesses, the promise of a leaner government could reduce operational complexities, but the full scope of this plan and its real-world impact on the economy are yet to be seen.

The Tower. Experts predict that Trump’s fiscal policy changes could drive market volatility, with tax cuts likely to benefit equities and banks. But climate commitments may take a back seat, impacting global sustainability efforts. In fintech, the prospect of fewer regulations could mean more neobank launches, though this comes with increased competition and potential risks. For business leaders, this presidency may be marked by opportunities as well as heightened uncertainties in sustainability and policy.