It’s not just about investors and innovation—it’s about volatility, inflation, and the people who may never see the payoff.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any organization, employer, or entity affiliated with the author.
Let’s See What AI Thinks About Trump’s Tariffs
More precisely, I asked ChatGPT for a “honest opinion” about Trump’s new tariffs—for as much as its opinion can be honest, or even truly an opinion at all.
Still, it's interesting to hear what a model trained on an impressive amount of data has to say about the topic. It wasn’t easy—if you’ve used ChatGPT, you know its first reply usually involves summaries and lists. But with a slightly refined prompt, it replied.
Here’s the answer:
Economically, it’s a blunt instrument. A universal 10% tariff, plus massive surcharges on countries like China, is like using a sledgehammer to fix a watch.
It doesn't target specific industries, inefficiencies, or unfair practices—it taxes everything. That’s going to hit U.S. consumers, small businesses, and global supply chains hard.
I don’t think the benefits to domestic manufacturing will outweigh the inflation, job losses, and likely retaliation.
Strategically, this weakens trust with allies. If you slam tariffs on Japan or the EU while trying to counterbalance China’s influence, it just fragments whatever leverage the U.S. might build through coalitions.
What bothers me most: it doesn’t come with a real plan. Tariffs can be useful—if you use them tactically while investing in domestic capabilities, technology, education, infrastructure.But here, it feels more like a political fireworks show than a coordinated strategy for long-term competitiveness.
So yeah—my opinion is that this is bad economics dressed up as patriotic defiance. It might win votes, but it risks dragging the U.S. and parts of the global economy into a needless downturn.
Honestly, it’s quite a harsh opinion—but it’s grounded. And maybe many of you had the same impression.
Let’s say that what happens after the so-called “Liberation Day” puts us at a crossroads. We face two options:
- Either this is a reckless move from Trump
- Or it’s a calculated bluff
And as any good poker player knows, the true skill lies in knowing when to leave the table. So—if this is indeed a reckless move—will Trump step away when he realizes that we’re dealing with an economy more globalized, interdependent, and volatile than ever before?
Let’s start from the beginning. In theory, using tariffs to “make America great again” isn’t complete nonsense. Blocking or reducing imports could, in principle, give space for domestic industry to recover and re-industrialize. The idea is understandable. But the timeline is not. This is not something you accomplish in a single presidential term—or even two.
Who will bear the costs?
More importantly: will the average person—the middle-class voter—actually see any benefit? Probably not. Prices are likely to increase, and re-training a workforce to fill the gaps left by previously imported goods is an enormous, time-consuming challenge.
From an investor’s point of view, uncertainty like this tends to trigger caution. Capital moves toward safer assets—often away from tech, and particularly away from high-growth sectors like fintech.
We’re already seeing signs of this. Several fintech companies are delaying IPOs—among them, Klarna and Chime.
Tariffs could do more than spark inflation and slow down consumer spending. They may stall innovation, suppress investor appetite, and leave the U.S. behind in both competition and talent development. Today’s global economy is too complex for tariffs to serve as a magic fix.
The U.S., after all, isn’t Germany. Germany is one of those rare cases where the tide of globalization was tempered by state intervention, targeted investments, and public-private cooperation.
The U.S., by contrast, has long favored a different path. Maybe laissez-faire went too far. Maybe too many people were left behind to believe that the solution now lies in simply raising tariffs.
It’s not just about investor sentiment or workforce re-skilling. It’s also about:
- Volatility
- Higher interest rates (likely needed to combat inflation)
- A total restructuring of supply chains
When you see even strong companies stepping back to reassess the market—especially in fintech, where adaptability is high—that’s an important signal. It shouldn’t be underestimated.
Discover top fintech news and events!
Subscribe to FinTech Weekly's newsletter
Read by executives at JP Morgan, Coinbase, Blackrock, Klarna and more
Because while fintech companies are highly resilient and often find ways to turn disruption into opportunity, what about the people?
Let’s consider something simple: a consumer accustomed to using BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) services. Suddenly, fintechs offering those products start rethinking their models because of rising rates. That same consumer also sees their purchasing power eroded by inflation. So what’s the solution? A new job? Sure—but is it really that simple to create new jobs, and prepare people for them, quickly enough to match the speed of economic change?
Then there’s the other scenario: Trump is bluffing, using tariffs as leverage in a high-stakes trade negotiation. That, tactically, could be smart—as long as other countries don’t retaliate. But that’s a big “if.” Trade wars escalate easily, and retaliatory moves are already in motion.
Trump vs. Musk
Still, if this is all a strategic game, it’s worth noting that Elon Musk—arguably Trump’s closest high-profile supporter—has publicly advocated for a zero-tariff zone between the U.S. and Europe during a recent political gathering in Florence, Italy (Musk wasn’t there in person).
So where does that leave us?
Time will tell. But for now, what was shaping up to be a fintech spring has hit pause.
Will this benefit people? Unlikely.
Will fintech adapt? Almost certainly.
But whether people survive the pause—that’s the real test.
