High Risk Of Recession In The Second Half Of 2023 - Issue #409 March 30th, 2023

The US is about to publish the March Conference Board Consumer Confidence index – CB Consumer Confidence. A high index records positive sentiment of consumers, while a lower index indicates pessimism. It is expected that the index will be lower for the third time in a row, reaching 101. A lower index also indicates bearishness for the US dollar.

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As we anticipated in our FTW Weekend newsletter, it seems that fintech companies are the solution to the current crisis. The co-CEO and co-founder of the fintech company Brex discusses how his company is helping the businesses damaged by the Silicon Valley Bank – SVB – collapse.

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Regulators are still hitting fintech and crypto businesses. Binance, the largest centralized crypto exchange, and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, were sued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – CFTC – for breaking derivatives rules.

The FDIC – the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – announced that First Citizens Bank will buy $72 billion worth of Silicon Valley Bank’s assets – at a discount of over $16 billion. The FDIC has already deposited SVB’s assets into a “bridge bank” to protect depositors.

Despite the various deals that seem to ease concerns about the banking crisis, in reality investors are still nervous. As Kate Marino points out, the high-yield bond market is a great indicator: high-yield bonds, sometimes referred to as ‘junk bonds’, are those bonds offered by institutions that pay high interest because of the high risk involved in the investment. The index went above the 5-point mark, signaling that the risk of recession in the second half of 2023 has intensified.

In the meantime, fintech and the crypto space find new solutions and opportunities. Metamask and MoonPay partner to make crypto purchases easier in Nigeria.

While some tech sectors are thriving, tech layoffs didn’t stop. Murray Sabrin talks about a highly probable recession in the second half of 2023, fueled by a series of layoffs started in fintech that could spread across several sectors.

AI in finance. The use of artificial intelligence in the financial sector raised questions about the future of work and the fintech industry. Despite doubts, it seems that artificial intelligence will play a pivotal role in finance in the next few years – according to the consulting firm Gartner.

Surbhi Arora for FinTech Weekly. Embedded finance allows businesses to offer payment methods that meet the needs of people. All this is effortless – one of the characteristics of fintech is inclusivity. Embedded wealth is constantly growing, and fintech companies seem to benefit from it more than traditional businesses.

Rosalia Mazza for FinTech Weekly. The current crisis mostly depends on the rising interest rates set by regulators as a tool against inflation. What’s next, and how markets responded after the last FOMC meeting?